Papers by Alexander Korolev
The British Journal of Politics and International Relations, 2026
How can smaller powers use hedging effectively to navigate the intensifying great power rivalry? ... more How can smaller powers use hedging effectively to navigate the intensifying great power rivalry? Why can some smaller powers hedge successfully between competing great powers while others fail and suffer serious harm? The burgeoning hedging literature is largely silent about which hedging patterns are likely to be more successful and why. This research contributes to the field by discerning and specifying two distinct modes of hedging – “risk mitigation” and “gains maximisation” – and their implications for hedging outcomes under intensifying great power rivalry. It argues that while these two modes might seem similar, and the extant literature has so far failed to separate them, primarily conceiving hedging as risk minimisation, they have different operational logics and are likely to have different consequences for the hedging states. It probes the two concepts using cases of smaller power hedging in Southeast Asia (Malaysia and Vietnam), exposed to the China–US rivalry, and in the post-Soviet space (Georgia and Ukraine), exposed to the Russia–North Atlantic Treaty Organization rivalry. It further argues that as great power rivalry intensifies, abandoning the gains maximisation and consolidating the risk-mitigation logic of hedging can help mitigate threats posed by great powers and minimise the chances of hedging failure.
The Conversation , 2025
EU leaders no longer believe Ukraine can win. To deploy frozen assets now is to bet on Ukraine’s ... more EU leaders no longer believe Ukraine can win. To deploy frozen assets now is to bet on Ukraine’s victory. To delay is to preserve flexibility in case Russia prevails. The EU is hedging its bets, quietly preparing for multiple outcomes.
Journal of East Asia Security, 2025
After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russia faced isolation from the West and has been viewed... more After invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russia faced isolation from the West and has been viewed as increasingly dependent on China. However, Moscow’s embrace of China as an economic, military, and political ally is only part of the story, reflecting the two countries’ systemic balancing against the United States. Geopolitical complications in the Indo-Pacific after the Ukraine war – intensifying China-US rivalry, China’s tensions with India and Vietnam, and deteriorating trust in the United States as a security guarantor – have placed Russia in a position to diversify its regional economic and security bets, displaying hedging rather than unequivocal balancing behaviour.
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs, 2025
Amid intensifying great power rivalry, China–Russia and US–India strategic alignments have moved ... more Amid intensifying great power rivalry, China–Russia and US–India strategic alignments have moved to the forefront of international politics. However, experts have struggled to define these two relationships. There has been little effort to provide a systematic, theory-grounded assessment of the two alignments, and almost no attempts to methodically compare them, leaving the understanding of global power dynamics incomplete. This article fills this gap by applying the Stadial Model of Alignment Formation (SMAF) framework to compare the cases in terms of overall strategic cooperation and its progress over time. The structured comparison also explores alignment incentives in the two dyads. The article further suggests modifications to the SMAF model and demonstrates how scholars can systematically measure the depth of strategic alignments, helping to draw distinctions among important cases. It shows that by most measurements, China–Russia alignment surpasses US–India alignment—a condition unlikely to reverse without dramatic shifts in global politics.
The Conversation, 2025
Donald Trump is eyeing a deal on Ukraine, but ending the war is only part of it. the real prize i... more Donald Trump is eyeing a deal on Ukraine, but ending the war is only part of it. the real prize is access to Ukraine's valuable reserves of critical minerals.
Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, 2024
For more than two decades, Australia successfully balanced its economic ties with China, its most... more For more than two decades, Australia successfully balanced its economic ties with China, its most significant economic partner, and its security alliance with the United States, its core ally. That era has ended. As US-China tensions escalate, Canberra faces difficult choices between the two great powers. The signing of the AUKUS (Australia-United Kingdom-United States) security pact in 2021 and other measures perceived as anti-China alignments signal that Canberra has abandoned its hedging strategy, siding with Washington against Beijing. This article critically examines this foreign policy shift from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. By placing Australia's situation in a comparative context, it argues that for a middle power, unequivocally siding with one great power against another is a risky geopolitical move that could further intensify great-power rivalry.
European Journal of International Security , Sep 20, 2024
Despite being ubiquitously used, the concept of alignment remains inchoate. Existing literature o... more Despite being ubiquitously used, the concept of alignment remains inchoate. Existing literature offers more than 30 interpretations of the term and very few attempts to develop an objective indicators-based metric of alignment. This state of the field makes assessments of the degree to which states are aligned problematic. This article systematises the theoretical knowledge about alliances, alignments, strategic partnerships, and other forms of cooperation and draws on some empirical observations to develop a ‘stadial model of alignment formation’ (SMAF). The model conceptualises, operationalises, measures, and explains interstate alignment with greater precision and consistency. It also includes the explanatory factors in the form of the three balances – the balance of power, the balance of threat, and the balance of interest – and connections between them located along the stages of alignment formation. As such, the SMAF framework gauges the relative scale and depth of strategic alignments and can facilitate comparative analysis.
Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI), 2024
As tensions between the US and China continue to grow and efforts to ‘friend-shore’ supply chains... more As tensions between the US and China continue to grow and efforts to ‘friend-shore’ supply chains gather pace, Australia is being forced to make a difficult choice when it comes to the future of its critical minerals strategy.
Australian Journal of International Affairs, 2023
For almost two decades, Canberra hedged its economic and security bets between China – its most s... more For almost two decades, Canberra hedged its economic and security bets between China – its most significant economic partner – and the United States – its core security ally – rather successfully, with Australian policymakers announcing that the country would not have to choose between the two great powers and that there are ways to maintain a tight alliance with the US while enhancing friendship and cooperation with China. However, Australia-China relations started to deteriorate in the mid-2010s, with Canberra effectively giving up on hedging by signing in 2021 the AUKUS (Australia-UK-US) security pact and undertaking other steps that have been widely received as unequivocally joining the US’s effort to contain China. This article explores Australia’s foreign policy transformation by conceptualising it as a transition from hedging to balancing against China. It develops a theoretical argument about why an essential middle power might decide to give up on hedging and start balancing. It argues that the end of hedging in Australia’s China policy is a result of disappearing structural uncertainty and systemic permissiveness on which hedging, as a pattern of smaller power behaviour, is premised. As such, the article contributes to the knowledge about hedging by highlighting the limitations of smaller power hedging.
IAI News, May 31, 2022
The western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was supposed to help the latter by punishing... more The western response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine was supposed to help the latter by punishing the former. That strategy isn't working. Punishing Russia economically is suring up Putin's position domestically, NATO's expansion is strengthening the China-Russia alignment, and military assistance to Ukraine without direct NATO involvement is merely protracting the war, with no clear end in sight. Given the geopolitical deadlock, the only viable option would be for the West to broker a neutrality status for Ukraine. It will be a difficult deal, with lots of costly compromises, but at this point it's the only geopolitical solution available.
India Review, 2019
This research examines China's official perspectives on, and interpretation of, U.S.-China-India ... more This research examines China's official perspectives on, and interpretation of, U.S.-China-India relations by surveying official, quasi-official, and some most relevant scholarly publications. China's official line has always emphasized the bilateral nature of the relationship between China and India fending off any third-party interference, including that from the United States. Neither Chinese leaders nor the regime's official media outlets would speak of China-India relationship with a triangular framework (with a rare exception of the Russia-India-China triangle). In the context of the rapid evolvement of U.S.-India military cooperation, the Chinese official line remains unforthcoming about whether such developments have direct implication for China's security or national interests. Chinese core official media has in fact minimized the popularization of the idea that containing China is the driving force behind any cooperation between India and the United States.
International Relations, 2018
This article attempts to advance the neoclassical realist framework by elaborating on the interac... more This article attempts to advance the neoclassical realist framework by elaborating on the interaction between system-level and unit-level factors in the formation of states’ behavior. With an empirical focus on post-Cold War China–Russia relations, which represent the ambivalent combination of a consistently growing strategic entente and a simultaneous reluctance to form a full-fledged political-military alliance, this study establishes two major unit-level factors – differing economic models and negative historical memories – that create hurdles for alliance formation between the two countries. However, under greater systemic pressure from the US-led unipolarity, China’s and Russia’s state leaders have not only increased bilateral military-to-military cooperation but have begun to actively implement policies to deliberately transform, if not remove, the existing non-systemic hurdles. Therefore, the neoclassical realist framework can be understood and further tested as a dynamic int...
IAI News, Mar 29, 2022
China is still claiming neutrality when it comes to Russia’s war against Ukraine. As that positio... more China is still claiming neutrality when it comes to Russia’s war against Ukraine. As that position is becoming increasingly unconvincing, the US is putting pressure on China to choose sides, threatening with economic sanctions if it continues its tacit support of Russia. But the deeper, structural, geopolitical factors in play mean that China’s alliance with Russia is here to stay. The US seems unwilling to recognise this, but does so at its peril.
Russian International Affairs Council , 2013
Given the dynamic rise of China’s economic and political might it is essential to consider the ef... more Given the dynamic rise of China’s economic and political might it is essential to consider the effect demographic factors might have on the country’s foreign policy. Could the demographics be a potential driving force for China’s expansion or a restraint to Beijing’s foreign policy ambitions?
Поиски Модели Медицинского Страхования в КНР (The Search for a National Medical Insurance Model In China)
ERN: Government Expenditures & Health (Topic), 2011
Russian Abstract: С 2002 г. в сфере здравоохранения в Китае наблюдается переход от чрезмерной мар... more Russian Abstract: С 2002 г. в сфере здравоохранения в Китае наблюдается переход от чрезмерной маркетизации к новым формам государственного регулирования, предпринимаются попытки вновь сделать предоставление медико-санитарных услуг общественно финансируемой отраслью. Поиски оптимальной модели медицинского обеспечения представлены как процесс развития четырех независимых систем страхового охвата населения: базовой медицинской страховки для городских работников, новой кооперационной схемы медицинского страхования сельских жителей, системы страхования городских жителей и базовой схемы медицинского страхования для трудовых мигрантов; с их последующей интеграцией во всеобщий страховой план, принятый в марте 2009 г. По прошествии нескольких десятилетий рыночных реформ китайское руководство старается вновь включиться в управление здравоохранением и сделать его эффективным инструментом институционального строительства.English Abstract: Transition used to be seen as a unidirectional process: ...
Russia’s policies regarding the South China Sea (SCS) dispute are more complex than they might se... more Russia’s policies regarding the South China Sea (SCS) dispute are more complex than they might seem. Moscow’s official posi on presents Russia as an extra‐regional actor with no stakes in the dispute. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Russia “had never been a par cipant of the South China Sea disputes” and considers it “a ma er of principle not to side with any party.” However, behind the façade of formal disengagement are Russia’s military build‐up in the Asia‐Pacific region, and the mul ‐billion dollar arms and energy deals with the rival claimants. These factors reveal that even though Moscow may not have direct territorial claims in the SCS, it has strategic goals, interests, and ac ons that have direct bearing on how the SCS dispute evolves.
Внутренняя и Внешняя Политика Кнр: Продвижение Реформ и Глобального Влияния (Domestic and Foreign Policy of the PRC Promoting Reforms and Global Influence)
Russian Abstract: Обзор 26-го Международного симпозиума Ассоциации китайских политических исследо... more Russian Abstract: Обзор 26-го Международного симпозиума Ассоциации китайских политических исследований в Сан-Хосе.English Abstract: Review of the 26th International Symposium of the Association of Chinese Political Studies at San Jose.
Thomas S. Wilkins. 2019. Security in Asia Pacific: The Dynamics of Alignment
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs
Journal of Asian Security and International Affairs
Power Politics: How China and Russia Reshape the World, by Rob de Wijk. Amsterdam: Amsterdam University Press, 2018 (originally published by AUP in Dutch in 2015). 212 pp. £13.99 (paper)
The China Journal
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Papers by Alexander Korolev